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The second quarter of 2009 provided
a remarkable recovery of global risky assets and Emerging Europe’s
stocks markets were no exception. For the quarter, Hungary (+65.7%)
topped the performance charts, followed by Russia (+43.1%), Poland
(+36.6%), and the Czech Republic (+33.7%). Russia’s market
benefitted from a combination of improved expectations for Chinese/global
recovery and higher commodity prices. Concerns about the strength
of the banking system in Central Europe also seemed to dissipate,
while signs of a bottom in the slowdown of economic activity showed
in surveys (such as the Purchasing Manager’s Index).
Given the strong rebound in Eastern Europe’s equity markets,
there are concerns about the sustainability of the market rally.
While corporate earnings suffered in the first six months of 2009,
we believe that earnings will begin to improve as the year progresses.
Should this happen, valuations would become more attractive compared
to their historical averages.
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©2009 Metzler/Payden, LLC. All rights reserved.
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